With this skeptical mindset I began reading the latest work product of Michael McFaul, a rather eminent Kremlinologist, and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, whose name doesn't ring a bell, and whom I am too lazy to research, entitled "The myth of Putin's success". But what a surprise awaited me when I got to this passage:
The murder rate has increased under Putin. Health spending averaged only 6 percent of GDP from 2000 to 2005, compared with 6.4 percent from 1996 to 1999. Russia's population has been shrinking since 1990, thanks to decreasing fertility and increasing mortality rates, but the decline has worsened since 1998. At the end of the 1990s, annual alcohol consumption per adult was 10.7 liters; by 2004, this figure had increased to 14.5 liters. In short, the data simply do not support the popular notion that Putin's more autocratic state is also a more capable or effective state in addressing Russia's significant public policy challenges.
I was so stunned by this discovery that I dropped my vodka bottle and startled my pet bear. Do I see statistics? Do I see quantitative judgments? Do I see verifiable facts?!! What courage! A Kremlinologist willing to stick his neck out, provide some facts, and be judged on that? I cried. With tears flowing down my cheeks, I proceeded to verify these facts.
And what did I discover? Well, let's proceed to list these in the order in which they appeared:
#1 "The murder rate has increased under Putin."
Murder rate per 100,000 population, 2007 rate annualized based on Jan-Sept
| 1995 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 31 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 25 | 20 | 17.6 |
Source: Rosstat
Conclusion: Our brave Kremlinologists lied.
#2 "Health spending averaged only 6 percent of GDP from 2000 to 2005, compared with 6.4 percent from 1996 to 1999."
As usual, no source given. Let's verify from sources that we have:
| 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |
| 2.5 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |||||||||
| 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
Source: Euromonitor quoting WHO
Average for 1996-1999: 5.8%
Average for 2000-2005: 5.7%
A more correct conclusion would be that health expenditures as percent of GDP remained on virtually the same level throughout the period, especially if we factor out the unexplained spike in 1998. But we cannot say that the authors are wrong in their implication that such expenditures were decreasing during Putin's term, even if the source of their numbers is unknown. But we'll return to that later.
Meanwhile, some fishy choices need to be explained. Why were the years 1992-1995 excluded from the calculation? Could it be in order to make the pre-Putin average appear bigger compared to the Putin average? Such shameless manipulation...
Now, what do these numbers tell us? That Putin is evil? Well, I'm sure the authors were trying to tell that. But they forgot some important considerations: 1) Why would health expenditures increase if the population is decreasing? 2) Why use indirect statistics relative to GDP, rather than absolute numbers?
Given the fact that Russia's population had decreased during the given period, while GDP increased, we can safely say that in absolute numbers health expenditures per capita have grown significantly. Ah, that evil Putin!
Conclusion: Can't say that our brave Kremlinologists lied, but they did engage is some unseemly manipulations with numbers.
#3 "Russia's population has been shrinking since 1990, thanks to decreasing fertility and increasing mortality rates, but the decline has worsened since 1998."
Natural population growth rate, per 1000 population (only death and births counted, migration excluded), 2007 rate annualized based on Jan-Sept
| 1995 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| -5.7 | -6.6 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -6.2 | -5.6 | -5.9 | -4.8 | -3.6 |
Source: Rosstat
Conclusion: Our brave Kremlinologists lied.
#4 "At the end of the 1990s, annual alcohol consumption per adult was 10.7 liters; by 2004, this figure had increased to 14.5 liters. "
Our brave Kremlinologists are slightly confused here. The alleged alcohol consumption figures are usually alcohol sales figures. If we assume that alcohol sales figures correspond to consumption, we'll have to admit that Russia is one of the more sober countries on this planet, which does not correspond to empirical observations. In reality, these figures indicate that Russians started buying more legal alcohol. They say nothing about purchases and consumption of illegal alcohol, such as counterfeit products and moonshine, or of alcohol products not intended for consumption. Therefore, no conclusions can be drawn based on this evidence alone.
However, alcohol consumption can be measured indirectly through mortality statistics.
Deaths due to accidental alcohol poisoning, per 100,000 population, 2007 rate annualized based on Jan-Sept
| 1995 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 30 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 20 | 14.5 |
Source: Rosstat
Conclusion: Our brave Kremlinologists lied.
And so it goes. You find some brave Kremlinologists, and even they are liars. What a disappointment.
